Real Estate Housing crisis?
So we’re thinking about that in November right now and we’re looking forward into the end of the year now that the election is behind us and we’re like, what’s going to happen? We’re real estate brokers who’ve been doing this 20 years now, and we’re based in fiscal Texas, which is one of the fastest growing places in the country. Yeah. And people are wondering, they’re like, hey, right, what’s going on? Is it safe to dip your toe back in the water now? Because some people were on the sideline and that commonly happens during election seasons. Like there’s kind of like this pause. But is the pause going to be winter freeze? Or is it going to open up? Yeah, so tell us.
Real estate broker Shlomit, we had a really big freeze by any stretch, right? I don’t feel like we had freeze.
So, you know, personally, I like to follow Jim Gaines.
He is a Texas A&M economist. I don’t think I’m supposed to go because we paid for it. We paid for the times, too. We can move.
Yeah, but you know, what he says is, yes, he feels like we are going to have a slow down, a little bit of a slowdown in the home prices increasing.
But unless we have a major economic event happen, you know, our market should should remain strong and balanced.
Ok, and the market he was speaking on in particular, was that about just locally or statewide area? The Dallas Metroplex.
And now I’m a huge fan of big economic events. I really am. And I think those changed the world dramatically. And when that happens, I feel that the best markets in the country win. And for them to win, there has to be a lot of losers. So when I’m looking at this, I do think there’s going to be strong, strong places that lose a lot of value. Real estate wise, I was reading an article that New York City is finally starting to come back up on rental rates and prices were depressed there for properties. And it’s you know, it’s really a bad situation there. The hometown that I grew up in in Binghamton, New York, for a long time was just going down, down, down in value. And I could see small towns in like Rust Belt areas really being hit hard by this crisis and just continuing to get hammered. And when those things happen, people migrate. And when they migrate, they leave those areas. So I do see areas that would under perform strongly and they’re going to way under perform in the housing market and they’ll have some real problems in underperforming markets. And then those people will migrate, especially because you do not have to live right now with covid. You don’t go to, like, physically to work. So if you have a job where you have that, you can telecommute all of a sudden, why would you stay somewhere where it’s cold, rainy, unemployment’s high? You know, housing prices are bad. You have now this decision point and you can move. And I think a lot of people will be migrating, whether it happens to be in inner cities and there’s strife and conflict and unrest like a lot of people that want to go.
We’ve already started to see this, you know, as a result of covid.
But I think it to be strongly exacerbated as people who hadn’t made their mortgage payments because they put it off because of these things happening. And then we come out of Christmas and all of a sudden after that, then the mortgages. So they typically don’t do foreclosures during Christmas and during the holiday season. Right. So they’ll put that off. But imagine if you were behind like three months on your mortgage. You did some one of these. You catch that? Yeah. You did one of these delay programs and all of a sudden it’s deferred. And it’s what whatever words they use, eventually it has to get paid in these programs right now that are helping people that can afford to be in places where they shouldn’t be and they have problems.
And I’m all about the help. But it’s almost goes back to the bailout. Yeah, yeah. No, this is a it’s really difficult.
And how much do you keep assisting? And I think this assistance could backfire.
So it’ll definitely backfire in areas that will under perform. So I think an area like the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex is going to actually be a huge, huge winner, because what we’re going to see here specifically and directly in our city of Frisco, Texas, which is super fast growing, is I believe we’ll see a lot of new people moving here from areas that are underperforming. So with every winner, it’s kind of like the ying yang, right? So like with every positive action, there’s an equal and opposite negative reaction. And there’s a lot of losers across the country. Right. And then there’s a lot of winners as well. And but they tend to be concentrated, still have a lot of small losing areas all over. And they’ll be concentrated here. And hopefully that, you know, the top five, ten markets people will be migrating to will do really, really well in our weather.
You know, something that we have here is we do have we do have a little bit of a winter, but not much in our weather, you know, is great for the majority of the year.
The markets and I would say are going to win overall are in good weather location, so that’s one of the keys. And in areas where population is sparse and because we’ve talked about this, where people are moving to places with the last population and more space. Yes. So I definitively see that as something that’s going on. And so those winning places, I can think Bozeman, Montana, is going to be a winner. I think that Idaho would support Boise.
There’s Boise. And then I think that those you’ll start to see even the, you know, the outskirts of those areas.
So, Charlotte, you know, you can talk about that. People always point to that. People talk about like Tennessee, Nashville, Tennessee. There’s like Knoxville. And there some areas in there that are always on those list. If you’re basically on the list of, like, fastest growing, most desirable places to live there on the upsurge coming out of this, looking at 20, 21 and on the down on the downward, if you’re not on that and you’re on like the most least desirable places to live, it’s just going to leave you get out of there. But but come with money. Please don’t don’t come like starving and having a problem. That has been one of the things that we’ve been extremely fortunate with in this area is we’ve had a lot of people coming here like straight cash heavy.
And even, you know, back when we had the crash in 08, we saw that. Right. We saw we saw people come here from Florida. But even our market here, if you look at how it is compared to other parts of the country, I mean, we were we were pretty fortunate. Yes. We had foreclosures and all of that. But there wasn’t anything near what you saw in other parts of the country. So I think we live in a very safe place.
And, you know, there’s there’s actually a Web site that we could chat in that is conservative move.com, I believe. And you know those Jim’s friends. Yeah. So so we know them. And it’s very interesting. And what that’s all about is it’s about people moving for political reasons and they’re moving from one location to the next location, mainly for their political views. Now, that’s not I wouldn’t move for political views, but there are a lot of people.
Well, I was speaking to some people yesterday that had very strong, very strong views about this and.
I mean, things happen, so we’ll chat in that link and we’ll show there, Pedro, quick, what the conservative move now there is probably the same exact thing on the other side. Would like liberal movies or is with conservative move where people are moving from one place to another and they want to be human. Nature is to be around people that have similar like look, feel ideas, right. Passions, hobbies as you. So if you’re a hiker, you’re probably going to live by the mountains and by people who like to hike as well. Right. And you would associate with them if you’re a biker and you like to go cycling or on a motorcycle, you’re going to be around those types of activities right around those types of people. This is no different from that with conservative move. And it’s just something that we should kind of show off there.
We should come up with comfort. You’ve come for her or.
I know, but anyways, this whole thing is really about is there a housing crisis and it really does turn into migration patterns on a country wide scale. And as we look at this, I do think it’ll also turn into a migration pattern from a larger standpoint. I’m on Fox News today. I saw that they were talking about how Biden’s policies are affecting tech companies and the H-1B visas and that social media companies were they were going to be lowering the pay rate in which you had to make to qualify for an H-1B visa for social media companies like Facebook and and whatnot. So it would become more advantageous to bring people in on those visa programs in the Biden administration, which would bring talent from different areas, but not just within the U.S., but from abroad. Hmm. Now, I’m all for talented people, for sure, moving to our country. People that want to be here and are trying and putting in effort is amazing. Yeah, contributions are amazing. Right. And it’s going to be something interesting that now you’ll see another migration pattern in a big way from probably outside the U.S. to the U.S. and you can have your opinion on it one way or the other, but it will definitively be happening more so than it had the last four years. And you can pick good, bad or otherwise, but that probably would end up helping the housing market. If we have more people that, you know, want to be here, the more the population grows.
So it’s like supply and demand, right. If you have more people moving in, but there’s not more houses than the prices are going to go up. Right. And if, like all of a sudden you have something where you have, like, less people, like my hometown, Binghamton, New York, they went through a real problem after we left. No, like during that same time, what happened is had to be with, you know, they had too many homes and not enough people. And what happened is all of a sudden, like the market saturated with homes, right, and they ended up tearing down homes and you see that happening in different places where gentrification then when they did that well. So it took homes off the market and the city was helped by the college town. And so it has Binghamton University there, which is a large state university. And it’s a desirable school for people that live and want to go to a New York state SUNY school. And so that actually totally helped the Binghamton economy because the school took off at the same time. But if it wasn’t for the school, it would be like one of those ghost towns. I mean, it would be really, really scary. And you can imagine that same thing happening all over the country and then kind of the reverse happening in places like this. That’s why it grows. Right. So housing crisis, I guess it depends where you are.
And if you consider the crisis being, you know, there’s not any homes available because I think then there was a slowdown and people listing in and maybe they’re going to still wait it out a little bit. So, you know, you have more people moving here and you’re not going to have the homes.
So the word crisis could define if you’re trying to buy out, right? Yeah, I didn’t have. They don’t have the.
The supply, when people think of the housing crisis, they normally think that prices are crashing, but it’s also a problem. So like in Boise, Idaho, right? You’re saying that there’s like no homes available and people want to buy them and they’re having, like, multiple offers the law goes into.
It is so interesting. It certainly is. It’s kind of a crisis. So how about a thumbs up? If you like today’s topic and chat in you did.
Go thumbs up and you talk through and just kind of, you know, think about what we feel is going to happen and and do a little research.
And it helps prepare. It does help prepare you as an agent for the future or a homeowner to know when to think about these things. Your home is your most important investment. Well, in most people’s situation, it’s the most valuable asset they have right now. And in a lot of cases, it’s also a huge liability for other people. So if you’re in the wrong part of this equation, then it’s not a good thing. There’s been all different times where all of a sudden the house goes from an asset to a liability when the market shifts. And that’s a big liability in those cases. You’ve had people call you and they’re upside down and they have like negative equity. And that that’s a very difficult thing to deal with, so that creates a crisis really, really quickly. So that kind of wraps it up. I hope that gives you some good ideas and helps you forecast something. Yeah. If you need anything, just like make sure you’re working with an amazing realtor that truly cares. That’s probably the most important thing stays on top of the market.