What happens when HVAC shortages hit Texas summer Heat
What happens when an HVAC shortage hits Texas and the summer heat? We’re having problems, guys.
We don’t have enough HVAC components. There’s a real, real shortage, and that’s creating a real issue. So what we’re going to talk about is the fact that already before the summer even came, we have three week delays for much of the HVAC equipment, three weeks.
And that’s now when people aren’t even using the HVAC. What’s going to happen as we get later into the summer and all of a sudden things start happening? How long is it going to take to get a full system, all the different components, and what should you be doing to tell your clients?
So let’s kind of dive into this one about how you can be proactive and what what’s going to happen here. So we were talking through this with the owner of Frisco Air and he was telling me they are already four, four and five ton units. There’s a three week backlog before you can get it.
And that doesn’t mean that you can get the full system in that amount of time. It just means that you can get I think it was a condenser that you can get. And if you can’t get that component, then the system simply doesn’t work. And so there’s a lot of things that go into this and imagine once it gets a little bit busier and people really realize and the word gets out that like, there’s a shortage on this.
He’s had a lot of clients start to call him and be proactive and change out units before they need to be changed out.
Because they’re saying to themselves that, hey, I have a probability that I’m going to have a problem this summer. And my odds are, you know, 35% that I’m going to have a problem this summer and 60% next year and, you know, 85% a year after. Am I better to go ahead and proactively replace my unit now when I can get it and schedule it?
And if it’s going to be three weeks or a month or two months to get the equipment, if I’m on the list now and I go ahead and do it, then it’s actually taken care of. I might be doing it before the unit dies completely, but all the components, if there are available on two months, at least it’s completed now play through that.
If you wait those two months and you don’t do it and all of a sudden you’re in July and your unit goes out and other people’s units went out for them in May and April and June, and all of a sudden that happens. How long is it going to be for before you can get it?
How do you survive without added a unit? What if you only have two units in your house? What if the main one goes out? How do you do that? Right. What’s going to happen in real estate when all of a sudden somebody turns around and says it’s going to be six months for each vac for you? Right.
What do you do? It’s just hot. How can you do that? So there’s real challenges. So do people start turning to used units? Are they putting in used units that work to, like, limp through because they have to? How much you be willing to pay would you take if you wanted a whatever sear? Would you take this one? So the units that they’re going to be producing similar to cars, are going to be only the highest end units that make them the most amount of money.
If you have limited if you have a limited capacity in which you can put out, then which ones you’re going to make? The cheapest ones, the most expensive ones. Right. So now all of a sudden you’re only going to be able to buy like the highest and newest, the latest and greatest, the most expensive. So how does that compare with what you would maybe typically do? Right.
And if you don’t have a choice and there’s nothing available, are you going to take this unit? So are you better off to go ahead and order and get it done? These are real questions. So if you know anyone that has an older unit, probably a great conversation to have with them from a real estate perspective. And are these units going to be so expensive when that time comes?
Because if all of a sudden you can only get so many units and the the installers can only install so many and there’s a, if you actually have the unit now, how much can you in charge for the installation? So I think prices are going to go up dramatically for HVAC, for the install, for the actual equipment and the fact that you’ll only be able to get the highest end equipment.
And what does that mean for your clients? Should they just be buying brand new homes and skipping this whole step of replacing their units? Is it like going to be when your AC goes out that it’s like when your transmission goes out in your car that you’re like, I’ll just get a new one now? I don’t know. These are all just. Yes. So just kind of play through this, but talk to your clients about it because when you have proactive conversations about it, post about it, start speaking on it. And then when these things start to happen, they’ll remember that like, oh, remember when what’s their name predicted this and talked about it?
Because when these things start happening in June and July and you get to August and you’re just sweating, and the person who’s been there for two months, they’re going to say thank you to you, but then they’re going to be trying to buy a new home and there’s going to be a huge list of those, and they’re going to be one of the hundreds of people on a list for homes. Real estate is vital. You are essential. Those are real issues. That’s HVAC. That’s a problem for 2022. I don’t think it’s going to be resolved any time soon.
Huge backlogs on demand, supply issues all coming together. Major, major problems, shortages galore. And then imagine if you’re a tech and you’re getting paid hourly to install the stuff. If you’re not getting enough work, are you going to stay in the industry? Then all of a sudden, you know, next year we’re not going to have enough installers, but we’ll have the units, but no installers in huge demand because people were doing it from the year before. Oh, my word.
Does everybody see the problems that we have here? I do. It’s bad. It’s the same thing as cars. You’re going to be. All of this has come together. Sorry about that.
Episode Recorded Live on YouTube 02.17.22